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Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, by Paul D. Newendorp
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This is an update of the 1975 best-selling text, which became the standard reference in the field. This book introduces the reader to ways of applying risk and decision analysis to the analysis of investment decisions under uncertainty in petroleum exploration.
Topics covered in the book represent a composite of evaluation practices and problem-solving approaches used throughout the world. Several ideas and concepts were first published in the first edition of this book.
Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision. The emphasis in this book is on quantitative methods useful in petroleum exploration decisions. The book will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of property acquisitions, geophysical surveys, and prospect drilling decisions: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists and managers. A mathematical or statistical background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions.
- Sales Rank: #2138983 in Books
- Published on: 1976-06
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 6.75" w x 1.25" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 668 pages
From the Publisher
This is an update of the 1975 best-selling Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, which became the standard reference in the field. Several ideas were first published in the first edition of this book. The revision author extends the ideas and examples from his own experience. This edition uses updated terminology and examples with personal computer software.
About the Author
Paul Newendorp
Paul Newendorp began his career in 1959 as a petroleum engineer for Pan American Petroleum Corporation (now Amoco Production Company). In 1968 he developed a two-week short course on petroleum exploration economics and risk analysis. The course was based, in part, on his doctoral research at University of Oklahoma on decision theory and earlier industry work experience. For the next 21 years he traveled throughout the world teaching his short course. Entitled “Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration,” the course introduced many new concepts into the lexicon and accepted practice for analyzing drilling prospects. Included was his pioneering work on the use of Monte Carlo simulation for the quantification of exploration risks and uncertainties. His course, research, and numerous publications also brought into focus how established decision theory methods such as the expected value concept, decision tree analysis, and utility theory can be used to advantage in evaluating drilling prospects.
John Schuyler
Upon nearing retirement in 1988, Paul Newendorp encouraged John Schuyler, one of his former students and a longtime colleague, to design a successor course. Mr. Schuyler developed what has become his primary course, “Petroleum Risks and Decision Analysis,” (and variants) which has been presented more than 150 times in 22 countries since 1990 in affiliation with Oil & Gas Consultants Intl. This one-week course includes and extends many of the concepts in Dr. Newendorp’s book.
Mr. Schuyler holds BS and MS degrees in Mineral-Engineering Physics from Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from University of Colorado at Boulder. He was formerly VP and Petroleum Evaluation Engineer with Security Pacific Bank, Planning and Evaluation Analyst and Manager-Business Systems for Cities Service Company, and a Senior Management Consultant with a national accounting firm. He is a CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PE, and PMP. He is a member of AACE, IMA,
Excerpt. � Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
From Chapter 1: Virtually all important business decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The decision maker must choose a specific course of action from among those available to him, even though the consequences of some, if not all, of the possible courses of action will depend on events that cannot be predicted with certainty. Decision analysis is a discipline consisting of various methods, techniques, and attitudes to help the decision maker choose wisely under these conditions of uncertainty. Decision making under uncertainty implies that there are at least two possible outcomes that could occur if a particular course of action is chosen. For example, when the decision to test a seismic anomaly with a wildcat well is made it is not known with certainty what the outcome will be. Even if the well is successful in discovering a large new oil field it is not entirely certain what the ultimate value of the reserves will be. In fact, petroleum exploration has frequently been given the dubious distinction of being the "classic" example of decision making under uncertainty. Decision analysis methods provide new and much more comprehensive ways to evaluate and compare the degree of risk and uncertainty associated with each investment choice. The net result, hopefully, is that the decision maker is given a clearer, sharper insight of potential profitability and the likelihoods of achieving various levels of profitability than older, less formal methods of investment analysis. The older methods of analyzing decision choices usually involved only cash flow considerations, such as computation of an average rate of return on invested capital. Thus, the new dimension that is added to the decision process with decision analysis is the quantitative consideration of risk and uncertainty and how these factors can be used in formulating investment strategies. The fundamental concepts used in decision analysis were formulated over 300 years ago (1654). However, the application of these concepts in the general business sector did not really become apparent until the 1950's. And it has only been in the last 5-10 years that decision analysis has been seriously applied to petroleum exploration decisions. Use of these methods and techniques in drilling decisions probably developed more by default than as the result of crusading efforts by a single person, group, or company. Reasons for this are quite evident in the industry-rising drilling costs, the need to search for petroleum in deeper horizons or in remote areas of the world, increasing government controls, etc. These stresses and strains became so critical that most petroleum exploration decision makers were no longer satisfied to base their decisions on experience, intuition, rules of thumb, or similar "seat-of-the-pants" approaches. Instead, they recognized that better ways to evaluate and compare drilling investment strategies were needed. Today it is the view of many decision makers that decision analysis offers these and other advantages over traditional ways of selecting drilling prospects. Hence the current interest in the application of decision analysis to petroleum exploration. Decision analysis is a multi-disciplinary science that has various other synonyms: statistical decision theory, management science, operations research, and modern decision theory. It involves aspects of many traditional areas of learning-economics, business, finance, probability and statistics, computer science, engineering, and psychology, to name a few. We will, of course, discuss all aspects of decision analysis in detail in later chapters, but for purposes of gaining an overview of the methodology we can summarize decision analysis as a series of steps: A. Define possible outcomes that could occur for each of the available decision choices, or alternatives. B. Evaluate profit or loss (or any other measure of value or worth) for each outcome. C. Determine or estimate the probability of occurrence of each possible outcome. D. Compute a weighted average profit (or measure of value) for each decision choice, where the weighting factors are the respective probabilities of occurrence of each outcome. This weighted average profit is called the expected value of the decision alternative, and is the comparative criterion used to accept or reject the alternative. The new parts of this approach to analyzing drilling decisions are steps C and D. The analysis requires that the explorationist associate specific probabilities to the possible outcomes (dry hole, or various levels of reserves). The quantitative assessment of these probabilities is frequently called risk analysis. Anyone who has attempted to assess these probabilities in petroleum exploration is undoubtedly aware that risk analysis is no easy task. Some have compared the "state-of-the-art" of risk analysis to the older, well documented profitability analysis by observing that we as a petroleum industry can compute a discounted rate of return to an accuracy of 50 decimal places; whereas we are fortunate if we can even estimate (guess?) the probabilities to the first significant digit! Risk analysis is, thus, a vital component in the broader discipline of decision analysis, and we will be devoting most of our attention in later chapters to discussions on how to quantify risk and uncertainty in the petroleum exploration context.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Missed opportunity
By R. NICHOLSON
This is an opportunity missed to write a book of real value to the oil industry. The authors have elected treat the subject with an almost complete absence of maths, which will suit some but most readers with a science or engineering degree will be able to handle much more. It's overly long for the subject matter covered, the treatment being slow paced and repetitive. The methodologies covered are applicable to a huge range of situations in the oil industry, and yet virtually only one case is considered (repeatedly), namely the decision whether or not to drill a well; this gives the reader a limited perspective of the subject matter. Finally, the book has been written by two authors and the joins are very evident, leading to a disjointed style.
Missed opportunity.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration
By Antonio C. Pinho
I took this short course (it was called Decision Methods for Petroleum Exploration) in 1970, in Brighton, England. The book still reflects most of the concepts I learnt at the time by Paul Newendorp and is enrichened with the updates by John Schuyler. It is still a masterpiece. I recommend that John, in the next edition, expand a bit more on the Monte Carlo Simulation showing the actual illustrated sequence of computerized events to arrive at the EMV chart.
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